Safe Bank

The article tackles the issue of macroprudential policy in the European Union during the Covid-19 pandemic, from the end of 2019 to mid-2021. The main purpose of the analysis was to compare changes in the restrictiveness of macroprudential requirements (capital buffers) using various restrictiveness measures (capital requirement, excess capital buffer, bank lending capacity). Using quantitative and qualitative data analysis, the main reasons for changes in the restrictiveness of macroprudential policy have been identified. It has been shown that the reduction of the regulatory stringency resulted to a bigger extent from improved capital position of banks than from a lower capital requirement. The analysis has also indicated that among the EU countries, capital requirements for banks in Poland were loosened the most during the pandemic

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on profitability, financial results and stability of commercial banks was analyzed. An extensive review of domestic and foreign publications on this subject was carried out; and with regard to commercial banks in Poland, monthly reporting data (from March 2020 to July 2021) was analysed using the least squares method (ordinary least squares, OLS). The OLS method choice was dictated by the nature of data and the results of statistical tests. The results showed that the profitability analyzed with ROA and ROE indicators was, in the analyzed period, negatively related to the number of cases, while the net interest income was negatively related to both the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. There was also no negative impact of the pandemic on the commission income and operating result noted. No negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic was recorded in terms of the stability measured with the NPL, Z-score and MPLS indicators.

The ECB's original monetary policy strategy was adopted in 1998 and updated in 2003. Since then, there have been several important developments and shocks experienced by the European economy (financial and economic crises, periods of very low inflation and unconventional monetary policy, COVID-19 pandemic, etc.). Moreover, in the meantime, climate change has become an issue of growing importance in the EU. All those issues have prompted a review and update of the ECB’s strategy. The new strategy was published in July 2021. This article focuses on several new elements of the ECB’s strategy. The first one is the issue of the costs of living in private homes (owner-occupied housing – OOH) and their planned integration into the coverage of the ECB’s inflation index (HICP). This is aimed at improving cross-country comparability as well as the representativeness of the HICP, as OOH costs represent an important share of household consumption. The second element is climate change and its economic consequences, which are to be taken into account when making monetary policy decisions by the Governing Council. Different views, pros and cons, advantages and disadvantages have been presented with regard to the above issues. The last part of the article provides some concluding remarks and recommendations.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the changes in the models of balance sheet structure management in banks in Poland after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main focus is on the changes in the interest rate risk profile in the banking sector, resulting from the low interest rate environment and other reasons after the events of early 2020. The key element of the models, referred to as Asset and Liability Management (ALM) models, is the management of financial result and risk in the banking book (including liquidity and interest rate risk). Lately the large-scale materialization of liquidity risk occurred during the global financial crisis. Since then, the regulatory standards and the tools implementing  them have been revised and properly supplemented. In turn, the post-pandemic changes triggered an increase in interest rate risk exposure. The deterioration of financial results, as well as the almost "forgotten" risks turned out to be as severe in their consequences for banks as credit, market or operational risks. This paper evaluates the impact of the change in interest rates after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic on the performance and structure of balance sheets in banks in Poland in terms of adjustment strategies.

The idea of creating a new capital market instrument emerged from the concept of Capital Markets Union. It draws inspiration primarily from the very good experience of covered bonds, which provide a stable, long-term and relatively cheap source of financing banking activities, while contributing to building the stability of the financial system. European Secured Notes fulfill the aims of the Capital Markets Union by supporting the financing of small and medium enterprises, which are the backbone of the EU economy, and which have been particularly hard hit by the Covid-19 crisis. The identification of the requirements for the development of ESNs, presented in this article, fits with the needs of the recovery of the post-pandemic European economy.

The forecasts and opinions presented hereafter represent a quantitative and qualitative consensus from the responses to our questions received by 6 December 2021 from prominent Polish economists.

Quantitative forecasts were sent by 15 experts, and 42 experts presented their opinions concerning:

• the greatest threats to the economic situation,
• the greatest threats to the stability of the financial system,
• recommended actions in the area of economic policy.

Additionally, in this edition of the Report, we asked about the most important threats to the credibility of the Polish zloty in the perspective of 2023.