Safe Bank

The article considers the specifics of the Ukrainian economic transformation under the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks, i.e. the world pandemic and the war. The main goal of the research is the analysis of the challenges to the Ukrainian economy and society under the pandemic and the military aggression and economic policy instruments that the government used. An analysis of the new business cycle for Ukraine in W-form is presented with an explanation of the recovery trajectories, where international economic support plays its significant role The directions of and financial resources for the recovery of Ukraine's post-war economy have been identified, including international assistance from partner countries (EU members, USA, and others), international organizations (IMF, World Bank Group, UNDP), and the Solidarity Fund that is going to be created. Preliminary estimates of damage to transport and social infrastructure, housing, and other material losses, as well as the problem of forced emigration of Ukrainian citizens are presented in this-article. The paper includes the IMF's assessments of how the war in Ukraine impacts the global economy and its practical recommendations for monetary and fiscal policies for governments.

The article presents a study of the main determinants shaping the banking system of Ukraine in the 2018-2021 period, before the Russian invasion. In particular, the level of capitalization of the banking system, the number of banks in liquidation, the dynamics of assets growth and other indicators of the banking system were analyzed. Then the paper analyses the main measures introduced by the National Bank of Ukraine after February 24, when the Russian Federation started the war with Ukraine. These operational measures included: regulation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the liquidity of the banking system, the operation of the electronic payment system and support for social benefits, the liquidation or preparation for the nationalization of Russian-controlled banks in Ukraine. The article also presents the  assessment of the financial situation in Ukraine, after the first month of the war.

The full-scale invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine has created new challenges for the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). In the article the authors have used system analysis to study the efficiency of the direct methods of the NBU in regulating the money market. It was established that the NBU took timely measures to ensure uninterrupted functioning of the country's economy by introducing military refinancing to maintain the liquidity of the banking system, set a fixed exchange rate and low restrictions on the foreign exchange market to restrict the rapid devaluation of the national currency. The activities of the NBU to fill the economy with money to finance significant military expenditures by buying and selling military bonds of Ukrainian Government, transferring profits to the State Budget, establishing relations with international financial organizations. In order to achieve a rapid effect of preventive measures, the NBU provides direct lending to the Government through the purchase of military bonds on the primary market. In the long run, the NBU should abandon its subordination to the Government and move to market-based monetary governance.

The aim of this article is to present the financial situation in Ukraine during the on-going war with Russia and present the efforts undertaken by Ukrainian officials to ensure the stability of the financial system in extreme circumstances. The author describes the decisions of Ukraine’s National Bank which aim to curb inflation as well as ensure the stability of the national currency (hryvna) and the banking system. Sources of financial help for Ukraine, both internal and international, are also considered. The article also touches upon the challenges facing Ukraine in terms of financial, social and political recovery after the war ends. The article includes materials of the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the The Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

The article explains a reaction of various segments of the financial market on the Russian aggression against Ukraine. Three groups of market segments are described: countries engaged directly in the war, selected European countries outside the Eurozone and the Eurozone ones. The focus is taken on three kinds of instruments representing currency risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. The current market reaction is compared with the one observed after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. If we assume scepticism about the intelligence warnings, the Russian attack that started on February 24, 2022 can be perceived as a black swan event due to the huge scale of the market reaction. The financial market experienced a volatility rise and an increased correlation between returns recorded on the selected instruments. The aim of this study is to analyse an influence of the military actions on prices recorded on the financial market in a light of a black swan theory.