Macroeconomic Challenges and Forecasts for Poland (Expert Opinion of the European Financial Congress)

Leszek Pawłowicz; Marta  Penczar

doi:10.26354/bb.1.4.73.2018

Published : 2019-02-25

Vol. 73 No. 4 (2018)

Macroeconomic Challenges and Forecasts for Poland (Expert Opinion of the European Financial Congress)

Leszek Pawłowicz

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2580-6708

Marta Penczar

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3564-1460

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26354/bb.1.4.73.2018

Abstract

Rapid economic developments combined with the considerable volatility of financial markets and the growing importance of non-quantifiable behavioural factors all suggest that expert knowledge should be leveraged to a greater extent in macroeconomic forecasts.
The purpose of this article is to present the results of the second edition of the “Macroeconomic Challenges and Forecasts for Poland” project. The survey was conducted in December 2018. The article presents a consensus forecast by EFC experts. In addition to traditional macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, it also lists threats to sustainable economic development and financial system stability together with subjective estimates of their probabilities. Using the knowledge and competence of EFC experts, recommendations concerning economic policy measures have been formulated with the aim of mitigating the future impact of the threats identified.

Keywords:

macroeconomic challenges, macroeconomic forcasts, financial stability

JEL Codes

G17, G18, E17, E20

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Pawłowicz, L., & Penczar, M. . (2019). Macroeconomic Challenges and Forecasts for Poland (Expert Opinion of the European Financial Congress). Safe Bank, 73(4), 7–26. https://doi.org/10.26354/bb.1.4.73.2018

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References

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Leszek Pawłowicz

redakcja@bfg.pl
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2580-6708

Affiliation:
University of Gdańsk Poland

Bio Statement (e.g., department and rank)

Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Coordinator of the European Financial Congress

Marta Penczar

marta.penczar@ug.edu.pl
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3564-1460

Affiliation:
University of Gdańsk Poland

Bio Statement (e.g., department and rank)

Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Gdansk Institute for Market Economics