Safe Bank

The more progressive of current trends in economics and policymaking outlined in the paper reflect a welcome shift away from the entrenched practice of positing and proving abstruse macroeconomic models and articulating the anticipated consequences of policy decisions, and towards an approach that sets out to more rigorously identify the causality underlying economic phenomena and, more importantly, contribute in a meaningful way to resolving pressing practical problems. This is cause for guarded optimism because as the ongoing debate on the causal factors behind the current, persistent crisis continues to expose the gaps and inadequacies of mainstream economic models and concepts, so too is a re-examination of the State’s regulatory impact on the financial sector taking place. Notable in this regard is questioning the validity of such pre-crisis legislation-shaping assumptions
as financial market efficiency, as well as positing that banking sector regulations should be differentiated across varying categories of bank operating models, or applying to the introduction of new financial instruments procedures modeled after regulatory mechanisms that govern the pharmaceutical industry’s marketing of drugs. The caveat downgrading the degree of optimism comprises such factors as the lethargic pace of introduction of the European banking union, regulatory divergence between the US and Europe, as well as the sluggish pace and varied scope of adopting Basel III solutions across jurisdictions.

This publication presents a literature overview and research results on the functioning and monitoring of the real estate market. A dominant part of the research presented in this publication is performed at the Narodowy Bank Polski. The real estate market was the cause of many economic and banking crises, but until recently has got relatively little attention from the central bank point of view. The analysis focused separately on the problems of the construction sector, on the housing and social policy and on the loan disbursement policy of banks, without looking at the problem in a holistic way. During the transition period Poland lacked a broad, consistent and long-run focused housing policy. The housing market was treated by policymakers in a way, which resulted in a misallocation of resources, the deepening of the natural cyclical nature of the market and even lead to housing market problems. This problem was strengthened by the opacity of the market and it was not easy for policymakers to apply solutions that are used abroad. Housing market cycles tend to be longer and more pronounced than cycles in other sectors of the economy (see Andre 2010), which is the result of a fixed supply in the short run. If housing demand grows due to a rising fundamental demand and also due to speculative demand that is fuelled with bank loans, prices tend to rise fast. In the next step the increased supply enters the market with a time lag, often under new economic circumstances in which economic growth and thus housing demand has declined. The realization of such a boom and bust scenario was stopped in the Polish market in 2009 due to the outbreak of the financial crisis in the world. It changed the sentiment of consumers and investors, made banks issue less loans and resulted in a declining housing demand. Housing developers started to slow down the construction of new housing or stopped it. In consequence, the market
started to move to its equilibrium point, without observing the burst of a bubble and having to deal with the negative consequences that are associated with fast price declines.

This article presents the development of the housing finance system in Poland, which had a direct and strong impact on the housing market. The rising loan availability lead to rising housing demand and consequently resulted in a strong rise in house prices that was followed by a housing construction boom. The 2004–2010 cycle is analysed and the behavior of consumers, developers, banks and investors is presented in detail. Moreover, this part describes the evolution of the mortgage market and discusses the choice of an optimal housing finance system. The housing finance system that is currently in place and the up- and downside of various possible financing systems such as universal banks, mortgage banks and various covered bond systems are discussed.

This article focuses on the relationship between the housing market and the banking system. The financing of the real estate market, especially that of the housing market is based on the banking system. Such a situation resulted partly from political reasons and can be found in many countries. Because in Poland owner occupied housing is supported by housing policy and also with tax incentives, it grew and became very important for the financial sector. The central bank on the other hand, has a significant impact on the financial system and on the housing market by setting interest rates. This article therefore presents the evolution of the financing of real estate and shows how the central bank influences the market. Moreover, issues related to foreign denominated loans are discussed.

This article deals with housing policy and regulatory issues. The analysis begins with an overview of the currently applied housing policy and on the accessibility of housing for the population. The next step is a list of suggestions how to change the housing policy in order to improve the conditions in the housing market. The analysis covers also a critical assessment of the regulatory changes that were introduced in 2010–2013 and discusses the current housing finance regulations. Finally, the evolution of the housing system in Poland is summarized.

This article focuses on the monitoring of the real estate market, with a special attention to house prices. First, the basic facts about the residential and commercial property market, such a size of the housing stock, etc. are presented. Moreover, the determinants of prices, rents and the size of the real estate stock are presented. In the next section the availability of data that is necessary to analyse the market is discussed. It is crucial to measure prices in an appropriate way, therefore theoretical and empirical models that are used to analyse prices in the housing market are presented. The presentation of the hedonic price model, which accounts for the heterogeneity of housing characteristics, allows for an adequate empirical analysis of house prices. The empirical approach is discussed in detail and recent empirical results are presented. Methods that improve the measuring of prices, such as spatial regressions, are applied and their empirical results presented. Finally, the question on whether to include house prices in the CPI and similar price indices is discussed.

This article presents the modelling of the real estate sector. First, housing is presented as a consumption and investment good and it is explained how the various functions that it serves affect housing demand. The supply side, thus the housing developer economics are presented in detail in the subsequent part. The analysis of the determinants of house prices in 17 regional cities helps to understand why house prices rose during the recent boom. The next section describes housing cycles, their evolution and how they can be modeled. In order to understand the occurrence of housing cycles one needs to understand the decisions of housing buyers and their interaction with housing producers, which is explained in the last section of this part.

This article the previously presented insight and knowledge is put together into one model. The main market participants (banks, investors, consumers and developers) that need to be monitored in order to improve the macro-stability of the whole system are described. The focus is on the equilibrium conditions of those participants. An indicator system, which allows to detect tensions early, is introduced. It should help policymakers to give precise recommendations which parameters in the market need to be adjusted in order to bring the real estate market back on the equilibrium path.