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Reaction of the financial market: a comparison of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe
Abstract
The article explains a reaction of various segments of the financial market on the Russian aggression against Ukraine. Three groups of market segments are described: countries engaged directly in the war, selected European countries outside the Eurozone and the Eurozone ones. The focus is taken on three kinds of instruments representing currency risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. The current market reaction is compared with the one observed after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. If we assume scepticism about the intelligence warnings, the Russian attack that started on February 24, 2022 can be perceived as a black swan event due to the huge scale of the market reaction. The financial market experienced a volatility rise and an increased correlation between returns recorded on the selected instruments. The aim of this study is to analyse an influence of the military actions on prices recorded on the financial market in a light of a black swan theory.
Keywords:
financial market, black swan, emerging markets, market volatilityJEL Codes
G12, G15Most read articles by the same author(s)
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